Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS (Wiley Series in by Ioannis Ntzoufras PDF

By Ioannis Ntzoufras

ISBN-10: 047014114X

ISBN-13: 9780470141144

ISBN-10: 0470434546

ISBN-13: 9780470434543

A hands-on advent to the foundations of Bayesian modeling utilizing WinBUGS

Bayesian Modeling utilizing WinBUGS presents an simply available advent to using WinBUGS programming concepts in various Bayesian modeling settings. the writer offers an obtainable remedy of the subject, supplying readers a tender advent to the foundations of Bayesian modeling with designated information at the functional implementation of key principles.

The publication starts with a easy creation to Bayesian inference and the WinBUGS software program and is going directly to hide key issues, including:

  • Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms in Bayesian inference

  • Generalized linear models

  • Bayesian hierarchical models

  • Predictive distribution and version checking

  • Bayesian version and variable evaluation

Computational notes and reveal captures illustrate using either WinBUGS in addition to R software program to use the mentioned thoughts. workouts on the finish of every bankruptcy enable readers to check their figuring out of the awarded thoughts and all info units and code can be found at the book's similar net site.

Requiring just a operating wisdom of chance idea and facts, Bayesian Modeling utilizing WinBUGS serves as a good booklet for classes on Bayesian data on the upper-undergraduate and graduate degrees. it's also a worthwhile reference for researchers and practitioners within the fields of information, actuarial technology, medication, and the social sciences who use WinBUGS of their daily work.

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Extra resources for Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS (Wiley Series in Computational Statistics)

Example text

Finally, when the Markov chain is irreducible, aperiodic, and positive-recurrent, as t -+ m the distribution of 6 ( t ) conver es to its equilibrium distribution, which is independent of the initial values of the chain Of’); for details, see Gilks et al. (1996). In order to generate a sample from f(8ly),we must construct a Markov chain with two desired properties: (1) f ( 8 ( t + 1Idt)’) ) should be “easy to generate from”, and (2) the equilibrium distribution of the selected Markov chain must be the posterior distribution of interest f (6ly).

Generate 7rt) beta(26,301) 2. Generate T ? ) N beta(31,gOl). 3. Calculate AR(t),RR(t) and OR(t) using the expressions After we completing this generation, we obtain a simulated sample of size T from the posterior distributions of AR, RR, and OR. Posterior summaries can be easily obtained using sample estimates from this sample. 1. 1; for more details concerning kernel estimates, see, for example, Scott (1992). Later in this book, we directly plot the posterior density estimates instead of the corresponding histograms of the simulated values.

MARKOV CHAIN MONTE CARL0 METHODS 39 From this sample, for any hnction G(8) of the parameters of interest 8 we can 1. Obtain a sample of the desired parameter G(8) by simply considering G (dl)) , G (d 2 ) ). ,. , G (@)), . . , G (d T ' ) ) 2 . Obtain any posterior summary of G(8) from the sample using traditional sample estimates. 5% percentiles will provide a 95% credible interval). Finally, the posterior mode can be estimated by an MCMC sample by simply tracing the value of 8, which maximizes the posterior.

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Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS (Wiley Series in Computational Statistics) by Ioannis Ntzoufras

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